Tesla Quarterly and Annual Performance Briefing (Q1-Q4 2024)
Sources: Tesla Motors – First Quarter 2024 Shareholder Letter
Tesla Motors, Inc. – Second Quarter 2024 Shareholder Letter
Tesla Motors, Inc.– Third Quarter 2024 Shareholder Letter
Tesla Motors, Inc.– Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2024 Shareholder Letter
I. Executive Summary
Tesla experienced a challenging yet transformative year in 2024. While overall revenue growth was modest and GAAP net income saw a significant year-over-year decline for the full year, the company demonstrated strong sequential improvements in key financial metrics throughout the year, especially in Q3 and Q4. A notable shift in strategic focus towards AI, software, and energy storage is evident, with these areas increasingly contributing to profitability. Vehicle production and deliveries saw a mixed performance, with a full-year decline in Model 3/Y but strong growth in "Other models" and Energy Storage deployments. The company is actively preparing for its "next major growth wave" driven by autonomy and new, more affordable vehicle platforms.
II. Financial Performance
A. Quarterly Financials (Q1 2024 - Q4 2024)
Metric (in millions USD, except percentages)Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 % ChangeQ4 2024 vs Q4 2023 % ChangeTotal Revenues21,30125,50025,18225,707-9%2%Total Gross Profit3,6964,5784,9974,179-18%-6%Total GAAP Gross Margin17.4%18.0%19.8%16.3%-199 bp-138 bpIncome from Operations1,1711,6052,7171,583-56%-23%Operating Margin5.5%6.3%10.8%6.2%-592 bp-204 bpAdjusted EBITDA3,3843,6744,6654,922-21%25%Adjusted EBITDA Margin15.9%14.4%18.5%19.1%-240 bp344 bpNet Income (GAAP)1,1291,4782,1672,317-55%-71%Net Income (non-GAAP)1,5361,8122,5052,566-48%3%Free Cash Flow(2,531)1,3422,7422,031--2%Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments26,86330,72033,64836,56319.9% (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023)26% (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)Key Takeaways:
Revenue: Total revenues showed sequential growth throughout the year, from $21,301M in Q1 to $25,707M in Q4. However, the year-over-year growth for the full year 2024 was only 1% compared to 2023, and Q1 2024 revenue was 9% lower than Q1 2023.
Profitability:GAAP Gross Margin fluctuated, dropping significantly in Q1 2024 and Q4 2024 year-over-year. The peak was in Q3 at 19.8%, but it finished the year at 16.3%.
Operating Income and Operating Margin also saw substantial year-over-year declines in Q1 and Q4, reflecting increased operating expenses (up 18% YoY for the full year).
Adjusted EBITDA demonstrated a strong recovery and growth, increasing by 25% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, and its margin improved significantly in the latter half of the year.
Net Income (GAAP) experienced a dramatic 71% decrease in Q4 2024 year-over-year, and a 53% decrease for the full year 2024 compared to 2023. This is largely influenced by a significant deferred tax asset release in Q4 2023 that artificially inflated that quarter's GAAP net income.
Net Income (non-GAAP) shows a more stable trend, with a 3% increase in Q4 2024 year-over-year and a 23% decrease for the full year 2024 vs 2023.
Cash Flow & Liquidity: Free Cash Flow was negative in Q1 2024 but recovered strongly in Q2, Q3, and Q4, reaching $2,031M in Q4. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments consistently grew throughout the year, ending Q4 2024 at $36,563M, indicating "sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans and other expenses."
B. Annual Financials (2020-2024)
Metric (in millions USD, except percentages)202020212022202320242024 vs 2023 % ChangeTotal Revenues31,53653,82381,46296,77397,6901%Total GAAP Gross Margin21.0%25.3%25.6%18.2%17.9%-39 bpOperating Margin6.3%12.1%16.8%9.2%7.2%-194 bpAdjusted EBITDA5,81711,62119,18616,63116,6450%Net Income (GAAP)7215,51912,55614,9977,091-53%Net Income (non-GAAP)2,4557,64014,11610,8828,419-23%Key Takeaways:
Revenue Growth Slowdown: After significant annual revenue growth in previous years, 2024 saw a slowdown to just 1% year-over-year.
Declining Margins: Both GAAP Gross Margin and Operating Margin show a downward trend since 2022, indicating increased cost pressures or pricing adjustments.
GAAP Net Income Impact: The substantial decline in 2024 GAAP Net Income is heavily influenced by a large one-time deferred tax asset release in Q4 2023, which artificially boosted 2023's annual GAAP net income. Non-GAAP net income, while still down, shows a less severe decline.
Adjusted EBITDA Stability: Adjusted EBITDA remained relatively flat year-over-year, indicating a maintained operational cash generation capacity despite other profit metrics.
III. Operational Performance
A. Vehicle Production and Deliveries
MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Full Year 2024FY 2024 vs FY 2023 % Change
Total Production433,371410,831469,796439,4451,773,443-4%Model 3/Y Prod.412,376386,576439,975404,4111,643,338-5% (using calculated FY)Other Models Prod.20,99524,25529,82135,034110,10555% (using calculated FY)
Total Deliveries386,810443,956462,890495,5701,789,226-1%Model 3/Y Deliv.369,783422,405439,975467,7301,704,093-2% (using calculated FY)Other Models Deliv.17,02721,55122,91527,84089,33330% (using calculated FY)Global Vehicle Inventory (days of supply)28181912--19%Key Takeaways:
Overall Volume Decline: Total production and deliveries for the full year 2024 decreased by 4% and 1% respectively compared to 2023. This is primarily due to a decline in Model 3/Y production and deliveries.
Shift in "Other Models": Production and deliveries of "Other models" (likely Cybertruck, Semi, and potentially S/X) saw significant year-over-year growth, indicating a successful ramp-up of these newer or less volume-intensive products. Cybertruck production more than tripled sequentially in Q2 and achieved positive gross margin for the first time in Q3.
Inventory Management: Global vehicle inventory days of supply saw fluctuations but ended the year at 12 days, a 19% reduction from Q4 2023, demonstrating improved inventory management.
7 Million Vehicles Produced: Tesla announced producing its 7-millionth vehicle in October 2024.
B. Energy Generation and Storage
MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024FY 2024FY 2024 vs FY 2023 % ChangeStorage Deployed (GWh)4.19.46.911.031.4114%Key Takeaways:
Exceptional Growth: Energy Storage deployments witnessed remarkable year-over-year growth, with Q2 2024 seeing a 158% increase compared to Q2 2023, and a 114% increase for the full year 2024 compared to 2023. This segment is clearly a growing and increasingly profitable part of Tesla's business.
"Our non-automotive business is becoming an increasingly profitable part of Tesla. As Megapack continues to ramp and as our fleet continues to grow, we are expecting consistent profit growth of our non-automotive business." (Q1 2024 Update)
C. Service and Charging Infrastructure
Tesla Locations: Increased by 13% year-over-year, reaching 1,359 locations by Q4 2024.
Mobile Service Fleet: Remained relatively stable.
Supercharger Network: Continues to expand significantly, with Supercharger stations growing by 17% and connectors by 19% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 6,975 stations and 65,495 connectors by Q4.
IV. Core Technologies and Future Plans
A. Artificial Intelligence Software and Hardware
Full Self-Driving (FSD): Tesla continues to invest in hardware and software for vehicle autonomy and ride-hailing services, emphasizing a "vision-only architecture with end-to-end neural networks, trained on billions of miles of real-world data." (Q1 2024 Update)
FSD (Supervised) V12 was launched in Q1 2024, and in Q2, the focus was on "reducing interventions... while improving driving comfort." (Q2 2024 Update)
Cumulative miles driven with FSD (Supervised) are approaching 3.0 billion by Q4 2024.
AI Infrastructure: Tesla is "continu[ing] to increase our core AI infrastructure capacity in the coming months." (Q1 2024 Update) The south extension of Gigafactory Texas will house "our largest cluster of H100s yet." (Q2 2024 Update)
Hardware 4.0: Transitioned to Hardware 4.0, "our latest in-vehicle computer with increased inference processing power and improved cameras," in Q1 2024.
Optimus: The humanoid robot, Optimus, is "performing its first task handling batteries in one of our facilities." (Q2 2024 Update)
B. Battery, Powertrain & Manufacturing
4680 Cells: Ramp-up continued successfully, with over 50% more cells produced in Q2 than Q1. Costs are decreasing due to improved scrap, yield, and production rate. In July 2024, vehicle testing validation began for a Cybertruck prototype using in-house dry cathode 4680 cells, a "major cost reduction milestone." (Q2 2024 Update) In Q3, Tesla produced its 100-millionth 4680 cell. The production rate for 4680 cells for Cybertruck exceeded 2.5k Cybertrucks/week in Q4.
Lithium Refinery: The Corpus Christi Lithium Refinery processed its first spodumene just 18 months after groundbreaking and is "on track to commission the plant in 2025." (Q4 2024 Update)
Cost Efficiency: "Average COGS per vehicle achieved an all-time low in Q4 2024," demonstrating continued focus on cost reduction. (Q4 2024 Update)
Cybertruck Technology: The Cybertruck features advanced technologies like a Stainless Steel Exoskeleton, 48-Volt Electrical Architecture (reducing current by 4x, heat by 16x), and an 800-Volt Battery System for high-power efficiency. It also incorporates steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering for enhanced agility and stability.
C. Product Roadmap and Manufacturing Strategy
Next Growth Wave: Tesla anticipates its "next major growth wave" will be driven by "advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform." (Q2 2024 Update)
New Models (Affordable): Plans for "more affordable models" remain on track for "start of production in the first half of 2025." These will "utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up." (Q2 2024 Update)
Robotaxi/Cybercab: A "purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary 'unboxed' manufacturing strategy." (Q1 2024 Update) In October 2024, Tesla unveiled Cybercab and Robovan, "both designed from the ground up for autonomy – without a steering wheel or pedals." Cybercab will feature a new powertrain with an estimated 5.5 mi/kWh, making it "our most efficient powertrain yet." (Q3 2024 Update) Volume production for Cybercab is planned for 2026.
Tesla Semi: Preparation of the Semi factory in Nevada continues, "on track to begin production by end of 2025" and ramp beginning in early 2026.
Roadster: Remains "in development."
New Model Y: Launched globally with production and deliveries beginning in Q1 2025.
D. Regional Highlights
China (Shanghai Gigafactory): Achieved significant milestones in Q3 2024, producing its 3-millionth vehicle and exporting its 1-millionth vehicle. Costs of goods sold per vehicle at this factory reached their "lowest level ever."
Europe (Berlin-Brandenburg Gigafactory): Began producing right-hand drive vehicles in Q2 2024. Model Y was the best-selling vehicle of any type in 2024 in several European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands) and the second best-selling in Europe overall.
US (California, Nevada, Texas): Refreshed Model 3 ramp continued successfully with higher production and lower COGS. Cybertruck production increased sequentially and became profitable for the first time in Q3.
V. Outlook and Strategic Vision
2024 Volume Growth: Tesla projected that its "vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023" in 2024, as teams focus on next-generation vehicles and other products. This projection largely materialized.
2025 Volume Growth: The company expects the vehicle business to "return to growth in 2025" driven by autonomy and new product introductions. Energy storage deployments are expected to grow at least 50% year-over-year in 2025.
Profit Evolution: Tesla anticipates that "hardware-related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits" over time, signaling a strategic shift towards leveraging its technology ecosystem.
Manufacturing Capacity: Current installed annual vehicle capacity is "close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines." (Q3 2024 Update)
Overall Ecosystem: The "Tesla Ecosystem" is presented as "More Than Just Vehicles," encompassing Solar, Energy Storage, Charging, Vehicles, Insurance, Lithium Refining, Battery Cells, Service & Collision, Autobidder, AI Compute, FSD (Supervised), Ride-Hail, and Humanoid Robots (Optimus). Software is highlighted as maximizing utilization across this ecosystem.
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